What a start to 2023….

Here are my takes as we are 2 months into the year already (holy crap — time flies). You might be asking, who the F are you and why do you think we care about what your hot online business takes are… great question no matter how much of a prick question that is ;).

A little about me.

I’ve been “building” products and media in mainly the consumer health vertical for 11 years. My prior life, I worked and hated life in finance, investing, VC (bro… CFA). I’ve dabbled (and failed — thanks COVID) in DTC pet as well. I’ve raised $, I’ve pivoted, I’ve failed, I’ve failed again, I’ve succeed. I’m a player — not a coach. I dig into every fucking element of the business. Yes, I curse probably more than a should. Sure, eventually I’d love to have the luxury of a problem arising with the business and my first instinct will be “who”… but, not there yet and I think you don’t know your business until you live it all. I start my day around 4am, a nice leftover habit from working at hedge fund out west. Peak productivity for me is 4–7am. I troll twitter. Excellent spot to lose a ton of productivity BUT also gain a strong network and see what’s new.

You know that meme you see that is growth on the left with a 45% slope for all of time(what people think growing a business is like) and on the right a complete cluster of nonsense with ups, downs, circles, cliffs, vertical… basically an incoherent circle of junk that eventually leads to higher success (reality of growth)… yeah… the latter is me times 3. Maybe 4. Still waiting for the trajectory out of the madness. It’s so close… but yet likely, so far.

Currently, I own and operate Acme Health, which is San Juan, Puerto Rico company with a few published websites (a lot more unpublished) in consumer health media. We have products, we have traditional media, we have a wide array of revenue streams and even more revenue possibilities. Think of it as a Media company with a bolted on Product Studio. Pharmacists.org, Diabetic.org, PregnancyResource.org, and Multivitamin.org. The last 2 just got started in Feb 2023. I write a lot medical content. From 2020 on, damn, in the multiple hundreds for sure. Throw that on top of everything else… I’m pretty damn busy.

So that is me. My experience has given me these insights, so take it for what its worth. Am I claiming to be a genius and knowing all the answers? No. If I was said genius, I wouldn’t be talking to you at all. I’d be on a boat — far, far away.

**IMPORTANT FIRST TAKE**

First and foremost, there has to be an acknowledgment that we are in a time that is seeing dramatic change in how business operates, why business operates, how to be more productive, etc. AI, more importantly access to it now (thanks ChatGPT & OpenAI), is changing the way of business forever. That could be in sales, marketing, productivity, administration, operations, customer support… you name it. If you are not fully diving into the capabilities with AI — that’s a mistake. It’s also opening up a ton of opportunities as new apps/services/companies building in AI are popping up every day… maybe every hour (seriously).

Business takes… focusing in on a few items in the paid market in DTC.

disclaimer: There are exceptions to all of these, but I would say this is for most companies these days…

You can’t be married to “paid” channels. It needs to be part of a very, very diversified strategy.

IF you are growing mostly in “PAID media” and are in “growth mode”, you really don’t know if you have a sustainable, LT business. You might have something, you might not.

This might be a HUGE “duh” statement, but I still continue to see it in my network everyday … and thinking VC $$$ is a backstop based on these growth numbers is very, very misguided in 2023.

**CUT AS MUCH BLOAT AS YOU CAN AND REVERT BACK TO SUPER BASIC BUSINESS PRINCIPLES AND BUSINESS MATH**

Can this change? fucking another “duh”— but you better have a tight ship right now with long runway. And trust me, as a founder and operator, I’ve been in this cycle too many times to count. Not having a working/projected model + BLOAT AND limited/no runway… no bueno.

— You could make an argument that this has been the case for years (I make that case), but we all got a little drunk on the 2020 Covid$$$ pouring in and forgot that this was becoming the case way BEFORE COVID started. Does the business ACTUALLY work? It’s going to be a lot harder for models that don’t work to survive all the way until a meaningful exit. Maybe you will have some “buzzy disruption” companies making it through from herd mentaility existing in VC still… and then a huge dump to retail… but — going to be the exception as to the norm for the next few years.

— You can’t control the marketplace and expecting “further efficiency and optimization” of your CAC online is fool’s gold. Sure, it may swing it your direction for periods of time, but can swing and continue much higher. Solely pitching a DTC company on “improved CAC at higher levels of spend”, god speed.

— It still gets all new startups/DTC companies piss drunk on “growth” as it is plug and play AND LoOk HoW MuCh $$$ We HaVe after the last round. RARELY does the model ever make sense initially (you know, like a business making money) AND most people take the CAC on your social ad platform as the true CAC…. which it is NOT.

— Never before has it been so easy with AI, tools, platforms to start and market a product/business in less than a day. Just think about that. You can explore a vertical, build, and start selling in a day. Anyone with a wifi connection.

— A team of coaches, and no players, is a bloated, sinking ship that likely will run out of funds or be so diluted, initial coaches have no interest in the business.

— Agencies, where to begin. Let’s leave that for another time.

That’s it. My 2 cents for the start of the year.

I’m going to try to write more often. It’s actually helpful for me as well. Lay it all out… see what the hell I just wrote… and go.